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The Milwaukee Brewers failed to put away the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the NLDS, turning a potential sweep into hope for the North Siders. Though most of the club’s opportunities were squandered by poor execution, manager Pat Murphy’s decision-making in the top of the eighth inning had a negative impact.
There were two key moments Murphy arguably mismanaged in the frame with the Brewers trailing 4-3. The first call is much more subjective, since it involved a potential bunt, but the second choice should have been obvious. Let’s start with the latter, as that was more egregious, confusing, and potentially game-changing.
Down a run, Milwaukee had runners on first and second with one out. Chicago’s left-handed reliever, Caleb Thielbar, had just walked William Contreras by essentially pitching around him to bring up lefty Sal Frelick. That was the time Murphy should have gone to Andrew Vaughn off the bench. Instead, he stuck with Frelick, who bounced into a fielder’s choice, and the Brewers would fail to score the rest of the contest.
Vaughn should have been an obvious choice in one of the biggest spots in the game. He has crushed southpaws this season, with a slash line of .313/.389/.470 in 132 plate appearances. Meanwhile, lefties own a measly .161 average against Thielbar in 2025. (Righties haven’t been that much better, at .205/.248/.342, but it’s fair to say that Thielbar was a rough matchup for Frelick and would have been an enticing one for Vaughn.)
Why didn’t Murphy make this move? It wasn’t addressed postgame, so we can only speculate. There are three possible options, but none of them are defensible.
Murphy didn’t want to compromise his outfield defense, as Jake Bauers would have to play the outfield after Brandon Lockridge and Isaac Collins were already out of the game. When you are trailing in the eighth inning, you don’t worry about defense, at least within reason. Bauers is a viable defender. The manager was worried about Vaughn hitting into a double play to end the inning, and Frelick would be far less likely to suffer a twin killing. If this was the thought process, it is playing “not to lose,” a horrible way to manage a playoff game with a chance to advance. Murphy just felt Frelick gave the Brewers a better shot; more of a gut decision. That might be the most respectable reason among the three, but it’s still suboptimal; all the signs pointed to Vaughn being the best option.
There’s no guarantee Vaughn would have come up with the big hit, but it would have been the right move to put the Brewers in the best position to succeed. Let’s hope that “non-move” doesn’t open the door for the Cubs.
Earlier in the eighth inning, the ideal managerial decision wasn’t as clear (at least initially), but it was worth discussing, especially after the first pitch to Brice Turang. Turang stood in against Thielbar after Jackson Chourio led off the inning with a double. Representing the tying run at second base, it was imperative that Turang at least move him to third with less than two outs. With Turange hitting from the left side, it was fair to see if he could simply roll over on a ball to the pull side to get the job done. But after he whiffed terribly at a sweeper well off the plate, it should have alerted Murphy to another option: a sacrifice bunt.
I know about all the numbers and reasoning for not bunting. It’s also the traditional take that you don’t “play for the tie” on the road, which would be the idea behind such a bunt: prioritizing getting Chourio home. But sometimes the stats and the typical way of thinking need to take a back seat to what is staring you in the face in the moment. Turang flailed helplessly at the first pitch, and (though perhaps we’re being unduly influenced by him going 0-for-his-last-7 with three strikeouts) he looked like he had zero chance of making contact.
The situation then screamed to drop down a bunt, put some pressure on the defense (which the Brewers often do) and see what happens. If it works, the tying run is at third with one out for Contreras. At best, Turang beats it out for a hit or (better yet) the Cubs’ defense throws the ball away. Sometimes playing for one run leads to more offense, but either way, it would have given Milwaukee a path to victory in Game 3.
Instead, the Brewers and Cubs will hook up at Wrigley Field on Thursday for Game 4. The series’s outcome will ultimately be decided by the players, but certain moments could hinge on Murphy’s in-game decision-making.