Brewers Video
With a 2-0 series lead heading to Wrigley Field, there was a real hope that the Brewers could put the Cubs to bed in ruthless fashion. That hasn’t happened, with the Cubs slugging the Brewers to death in Game 4 while the Milwaukee team couldn’t get the big hits to drop. In some ways, this portion of the series encapsulated what many thought could be the difference between the sides.
The Chicago Cubs have hit eight home runs in four games. They’ve struck out a lot, but they’ve slugged, and that’s been the difference in Chicago. They’ve had Nico Hoerner playing like an MVP, hitting .471 in the series so far with almost a 50% line drive rate. In all likelihood, this final game is a crapshoot, knowing that any team in baseball can win any game on any given day. The Cubs have momentum, but momentum isn’t statistically a big thing in baseball.
That being said, the Brewers are going to have a few advantages going into Saturday’s elimination game. First of those is the way the game is likely to begin, with a bullpen game for the Brewers against Shota Imanaga (or perhaps Colin Rea) for the Cubs. The Cubs are going to want some length from someone to cover at least three innings, before turning the ball over to their five main men: Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Kittredge, Drew Pomeranz, Daniel Palencia and Brad Keller. They’ll want to avoid Ben Brown or Aaron Civale in a game such as this.
That gives the Brewers (probably) one time through the order against the home run-prone Imanaga. To finish the regular season, Imanaga averaged over two home runs per nine innings, while also struggling to generate the strikeouts that have been so prominent for him through his first season and a half with the Cubs. In Game 2, the Brewers had a definitive attack plan for Imanaga (discussed thoroughly by Matthew Trueblood here), and they didn’t miss on the pitches they wanted. The key question is whether they stick or twist—stay the course, or alter their approach against the Cubs’ number-two starter, who is likely to adjust accordingly. He’s also unlikely to see the Brewers a second time through, with a quicker pull should he find trouble.
Then we come to the bullpen, where the Brewers have managed to use a wider variety of arms than the Cubs; that brings some distinct advantages:
We noted this penalty last season, in particular, when teams saw Emmanuel Clase for a third time in a series, as well as Devin Williams facing the same part of the order two days running against the Mets. (Sigh.) Relievers were often dominant early in a series, before regressing later as teams saw them multiple times in a short span.
So far in the division series, the Brewers have faced the Cubs’ ‘A’ bullpen multiple times, and without a lot of fortune with their contact quality:
Games Innings SIERA Earned Runs Drew Pomeranz 3 3 0.23 0 Daniel Palencia 3 3.1 5.13 3 Caleb Thielbar 2 1.2 3.09 0 Brad Keller 2 2.1 6.21 0 Andrew Kittredge 1 1 3.29 1
Of these, only Pomeranz has been truly dominan. Both Palencia and Keller have been fortunate not to give up more than they have, while Kittredge and Thielbar have been good but not exceptional. Still, only two home runs have created any sort of offense against the Cubs bullpen, making it imperative the Brewers either find a way to take advantage of their burgeoning familiarity or jump on Imanaga to begin the game. For your reference, here are the key Brewers batters and the number of times they’ve already faced each of Chicago’s Big Five during this set.
Pitcher/Batter Yelich Chourio Turang Contreras Vaughn Frelick Durbin Perkins Bauers Ortiz Collins Keller XX X X X X X X Palencia XX X XX XX XX XXX X X Pomeranz XX X XX X X X X Thielbar XX X X X X Kittredge X X X X X
Finally, ‘TBD’ may be the Brewers’ best starter in this postseason. It’s highly likely they go with a bullpen game, with either a lefty to counteract some of the threat from Michael Busch to start the game or even an arm like Chad Patrick, whose new slurve has been causing fits. He has a 1.14 FIP in his three appearances so far, and yes, the times seen in a series penalty could apply to him as well here, but he’s one of the relievers who has really risen to the challenge of postseason baseball. Regardless, it’s more likely they open with Aaron Ashby once more.
The beauty of this for the Brewers is that they have enough length available (between Quinn Priester and Jacob Misiorowski) that they can afford quick pulls where and when they need them. If Ashby has one out and two on in the first while struggling to command his breaking ball again, you can pull him. If Misiorowski can’t find the zone, pull him. They can mix and match depending on the situation, with no regard for any future following Saturday’s game. That suits the all-around strength of the Brewers. Their bullpen has thrown 22 innings of 1.23 ERA ball so far in this Division Series.
It’s win-or-go-home time. The Milwaukee Brewers have the advantage of home field, their home crowd, and the relentless approach that’s served them so well this season. They can plan for what’s to come intensely, know who will pitch (and probably when) for the Chicago Cubs, who have been far more predictable than the Brewers thus far. That being said, this is a shootout in which an umpire’s call, some BABIP fortune or a timely home run can make all the difference.
This is what baseball is all about—those moments where everything is on the line, emotions high for all involved. Can the Brewers finally have their moment? Do you think they even have the advantage coming back to Uecker Field? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!